Expert dismisses belief that gold is a refuge in times of economic trouble

KUALA LUMPUR: The party's over and what comes next is not going to be pretty, an international financial expert believes. Satyajit Das, who has over 30 years experience in capital markets and risk management and is now a consultant to banks, corporations and regulators, contends that the debt-fueled boom and “botox economics” of the past have come to a halt to make way for what will be, at least until global debt levels come down, a bleak future.

Source from (The Star Online): http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/11/5/business/12272586&sec=business
Published: November 05, 2012

 

Das(inset) also dismisses the long-held notion that gold was a refuge in times of trouble. “I don’t understand gold, it is an irrational asset. My mother, who is Indian, would buy gold whether it is valued at US$20, US$200 or US$2,000. It doesn’t make any difference to her because people have an innate desire to own gold. In my mind there is no difference between gold and paper currency," Das says.

“The most difficult period will be the time it takes to wipe out the debt,” he said last week at a talk organised by the Malaysian Investment Banking Association.

In a sobering assessment of the health of the world economy, he likened the various pump-priming actions by governments and central banks to driving with the handbrake on.

From the current malaise, he sees three possible outcomes: a 75% chance of stagnation, 20% of a collapse, and 5% of belle epoque.

For the man on the street, he has this advice: “First I would pray. People asked me what I would buy in 2008. I said foodstuff, energy, and a gun to protect you. The world is going to look a very ugly place.”
Das, a former banker who published a book in 2006 anticipating the credit crash, thinks that in the future the top 10% of the population will rule the world and hire 20%, leaving 70% with nothing.

“You already see this with security and gated communities becoming more prevalent. I'll be dead, thank god,” he laughed.

On what the ordinary person should do to protect his wealth, he said: “You need a trading mentality and to look very carefully at what other people are doing.
“My investment strategy now is very simply summed up. I don't bother asking questions about fundamentals. What are other people thinking and doing?”

Das also dismissed the long-held notion that gold was a refuge in times of trouble.
“I don't understand gold, it is an irrational asset. My mother, who is Indian, would buy gold whether it is valued at US$20, US$200 or US$2,000. It doesn't make any difference to her because people have an innate desire to own gold.

“In my mind there is no difference between gold and paper currency. You still rely on someone to give you something in return it is a different act of faith. Gold is not a good investment after adjusting for inflation, but it can be a short-term tactical asset.”

Asked about Malaysia, Das said that as the global economy waned, the question was not whether the country would be affected but rather to what degree.

“Malaysia has natural resources. You have things people need, at least in the near term.
“But a lot of the growth is dependent on government spending. There is a need to get away from investment-driven growth.”

On Asean, he remarked that the 10-nation region was to an extent “trapped in the China story” as its suppliers and exporters, especially in the case of Singapore and Hong Kong which are trade-dependent economies.

However, Das pointed out that the world was not at the end of growth per se, just the end of “financially-engineered” growth.

“Real growth stems from a few things: population growth, productivity and innovation, and new markets.
“But they are limited. Besides North Korea, I can't see any other country that has not been integrated into the global economy, unless the Martians start to trade with us,” he joked.

“The point is all those things will not bring us back to the growth of the past. We are in for a very long period of adjustment. To some extent we are going backwards.

“We are going to see not a great deal of forward progress, but a return to a more sustainable economy. That will be a long process.”

Regulators seized 142kg gold, RM101mil

PETALING JAYA (Nov 6, 2012): Regulators have seized 142.7kg of gold worth about RM29.8 million, and cash and monies in bank accounts amounting to RM101.92 million from the recent raids on four gold trading companies.

Source from (The Sun Daily): http://www.thesundaily.my/news/533848
Published: November 06, 2012

In October this year, Bank Negara Malaysia in cooperation with the police, Ministry of Domestic Trade, Cooperative and Consumerism and the Companies Commission of Malaysia (SSM) raided Genneva Malaysia Sdn Bhd, Pageantry Gold Bhd, Caesar Gold Sdn Bhd and Worldwide Far East Bhd.

In a joint statement yesterday, the four regulators said seized records revealed that a substantial number of investors had paid but had yet to receive any gold, prior to the raids.
The period of non-delivery had, in some cases, exceeded five months.

As such, a dedicated team has been established to track the movement of monies and other assets, while international accounting firms have been appointed on a full time basis to assist in the investigations.

“The scope of the investigation is international. In this connection, the enforcement agencies are actively collaborating with their foreign counterparts to obtain evidence in several other jurisdictions to assist in the investigations,” they said.

The regulators said investigations also revealed that several of these companies have poor record keeping and failed to maintain accurate record of all business and financial transactions.

These companies maintained different versions of financial records for different purposes, and also failed to submit audited accounts with SSM for the last few years, as required by law.

“For businesses, especially those that involve large numbers of clients and monies, it is imperative to maintain accurate records of all business transactions to avoid financial mismanagement or misrepresentation of the true financial situation of the company,” the regulators said.

“The enforcement agencies are aware of the plight facing affected investors and every effort is being made to determine the whereabouts of any monies and assets of the companies.”

Koperasi bekas tentera bantu perkasa ekonomi

KOTA BHARU 3 Nov. - Penubuhan Koperasi Kebajikan Bekas Tentera Malaysia (KBTM) oleh Persatuan Bekas Tentera Malaysia (PBTM) dijangka mampu memperkasakan ekonomi dalam kalangan bekas perajurit.

Source from (Utusan Malaysia): http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/Timur/20121104/wt_03/Koperasi-bekas-tentera-bantu-perkasa-ekonomi
Published: November 04, 2012

Presidennya, Datuk Muhammad Abdul Ghani berkata, selain mampu meningkatkan ekonomi, koperasi tersebut bakal memberikan pelbagai manfaat kepada ahlinya.

Beliau berkata, pihaknya menyediakan pelbagai kemudahan kepada bekas-bekas tentera yang menyertai koperasi itu termasuk peluang perniagaan dan latihan sebagai langkah menambahkan pendapatan.
"Saya berharap bekas-bekas tentera dapat hadir ke pejabat cawangan PBTM untuk mengambil borang dan menyertai koperasi ini.

"Koperasi diberikan hak untuk membekalkan sebanyak 5,000 tan beras sebulan. Jadi kepada bekas tentera yang berminat menjadi pengedar bebas boleh tampil ke pejabat persatuan untuk membuat permohonan," katanya.

Beliau berkata demikian kepada pemberita selepas merasmikan Mesyuarat Agung Koperasi Bekas Perajurit Kelantan (Kobra), di sini hari ini.

Take Stake In Halal Hub Firms, Sarawak Rural Coops Urged

KUCHING, Nov 3 (Bernama) -- Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud has urged rural cooperatives in Sarawak to take an equity stake in international companies operating in the Tanjung Manis Halal Hub, saying their involvement could teach members how an international business is run.

Source from (Bernama): http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v6/newsbusiness.php?id=706799
Published: November 04, 2012

"It's good if you can do it, rather than using the money in unprofitable ways, we lump the money together, we take equity in some of the best halal hub companies in Tanjung Manis," he said when launching the Gerak Usahawan Cooperative and Sarawak Wholesale and Retail Mini Carnival here today.

Taib said the global market for halal products is about US$$2 trillion, and involvement in the halal hub companies could give cooperative members some idea of the role they could play in the highly-networked international firms.

"We cannot assume cooperatives in Sarawak can run a similar business. It would be better if they learned about large-scale business bit by bit rather than cease operations altogether doing a small-scale business, which would not be encouraging to their members," he said.

Taib said the state has many small rural cooperatives but most fail to perform well due to lack of customers, the poor infrastructure and very high transportation costs.

The cooperatives should be restructured to enable them to get better returns, he added.

-- BERNAMA 

Public Gold to win back consumer confidence

PETALING JAYA (Nov 2, 2012): Gold trader Public Gold Marketing Sdn Bhd, which saw its sales last month dive by as much as 60% when it was put on Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) consumer alert list, is hopeful of maintaining last year's sales figure in 2012, said its founder and executive chairman Datuk Louis Ng Chun Hau.

Source from (The Sun Daily): http://www.thesundaily.my/news/531364
Published: November 02, 2012

The Penang-based company has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of 200% in the last four years, before it was placed on the central bank's alert list on Sept 27 2012.
Just over a month later on Oct 29, it was officially removed from the list.

Relieved the matter is settled for now, Ng, who is the largest shareholder in Public Gold, said his immediate task is to win back consumer confidence and continue with its branch expansion plans.
"Confidence among our dealers and customers was affected when BNM put us on its alert list on Sept 27. We saw our sales drop 50-60% during the period," he told SunBiz in a telephone interview.

Public Gold has about 30,000 registered customers. Of this, 30% or 10,000 are also its dealers.
Ng recalled how the company had assisted BNM in its assessment of Public Gold's business to ensure that it had a genuine business model and that "we solely trade physical gold and silver bars like that of any jewellers".

"The only difference is that we trade 24 hours and are Internet-based.
"During the period, we continued our operations as per normal because we were just placed on the consumer alert list (as opposed to the Financial Fraud Alert (FFA) list)," said Ng, adding that the FFA list is "very serious" as it indicates that the companies on the list are conducting illegal financial schemes.

"After this incident, we have proven ourselves to be sincere in serving our customers' interest through a practical business model that has now been verified by BNM.
"We are hopeful that sales will pick up for the rest of the year," added Ng.

In a statement dated Oct 30 2012, Public Gold said it will continue to maintain a proactive relationship with BNM and local authorities in order to comply with their guidelines.
Ng said Public Gold has 18 branches across Malaysia to date. In the Klang Valley alone, it has four branches in Sunway, Ampang, Klang and Kajang.

Plans are in the pipeline to list Public Gold on the local bourse in end-2014.
How does Public Gold ensure it won't fall into BNM's consumer alert list again? "Nobody can assure that," said Ng.

"We just have to ensure there is no complaint against our company and we don't infringe on the basic guidelines of gold trading, that is, just buy and sell physical gold, don't take deposit from customers, and don't promise any returns or give any monthly interest."

Pembukaan syarikat loji pemprosesan emas di Lipis jana pekerjaan

KUALA LIPIS 1 Nov. - Kegiatan perlombongan emas kini menjadi antara sumber pendapatan utama negeri ini berikutan pembukaan Syarikat J Resources Penjom Gold Mine (SJRPGM) di Penjom dekat sini.

Source from (Utusan Malaysia): http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/Pahang/20121102/wp_02/Pembukaan-syarikat-loji-pemprosesan-emas-di-Lipis-jana-pekerjaan
Published: November 02, 2012

SJRPGM merupakan loji pemprosesan emas pertama termoden di negara ini selepas Selinsing Gold Mine Manager (SGMM) Sdn. Bhd. (SGMM) yang juga merupakan loji termoden kedua beroperasi di Selinsing dekat Sungai Koyan sejak 10 tahun lalu.

Pengerusi Jawatankuasa Kemudahan Asas, Pengangkutan dan Pertumbuhan negeri, Datuk Ir. Mohd. Soffi Abdul Razak berkata, kedua-dua loji emas berkenaan akan memberikan impak besar kepada pembangunan ekonomi daerah ini khususnya peluang pekerjaan kepada penduduk tempatan.

"Sehingga ini, seramai 1,000 pekerja mahir dan separa mahir bekerja di SJRPGM Penjom manakala 229 penduduk tempatan bekerja di SGMM Selinsing dengan kadar upah yang lumayan.

"Pembukaan kedua-dua loji berkenaan sejak 10 tahun lalu memberi manfaat terhadap penduduk tempatan malah menyumbang hasil kepada kerajaan negeri," katanya kepada pemberita di sini baru-baru ini.

Menurut beliau, pembukaan lombong emas kedua di situ digerakkan oleh tenaga kerja mahir dan separa mahir dalam kalangan penduduk tempatan yang boleh mengendalikan sektor berkenaan setanding dengan loji sama di negara Barat, China dan Afrika.

Katanya, urusan teknikal cari gali dan logistik loji di SJRPGM Penjom pada awalnya diselenggarakan oleh kepakaran pelombong Australia, kini diambil alih 100 peratus anak tempatan Kampung Penjom termasuk bidang pengurusan.

"Saya dimaklumkan ada dalam kalangan anak tempatan yang mengendalikan loji di Penjom dan Selinsing sudah menjalani pengalaman melombong sambil bekerja di Australia dan Amerika Syarikat (AS) dengan mempelajari kepakaran cari gali serta pemprosesan bahan mineral itu di negara berkenaan.

"Inilah yang membanggakan kerajaan negeri, kepimpinan setempat dan penduduk di sini kerana kedua-dua loji emas berkenaan yang terbesar dan termoden diterajui kepakaran tempatan," ujarnya.

Kata beliau, kejayaan itu membuktikan transformasi pembangunan modal insan dan ekonomi kerajaan negeri bergerak di landasan betul dan menepati wawasan negara.

Mohd. Sofi yang juga Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) Benta, berkata, kepakaran dan pengalaman pekerja tempatan dalam bidang geologi dan eksplorasi memberi jaminan operasi cari gali emas di kawasan berkenaan tidak akan menjejaskan alam sekitar dan kawasan tadahan air.

40 Peratus Koperasi Di Kelantan Belum Bermesyuarat

KOTA BAHARU, 1 Nov (Bernama) -- Suruhanjaya Koperasi Malaysia (SKM) Kelantan mendapati 40 peratus daripada 650 koperasi negeri itu belum mengadakan mesyuarat tahunan masing-masing.

Source from (Bernama): http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v6/bm/newsgeneral.php?id=706158
Published: November 02, 2012

Sehubungan itu, Pengarahnya, Wan Mohamad Sabri Wan Harun meminta koperasi yang belum bermesyuarat supaya berbuat demikian segera bagi membolehkan mereka menghantar laporan sebelum akhir tahun ini.

Katanya jabatannya tidak akan berkompromi dalam mengambil tindakan terhadap mana-mana koperasi yang tidak mematuhi peraturan itu.

Bercakap kepada Bernama, di sini hari ini beliau berkata mengikut Akta Koperasi 1993, mana-mana syarikat koperasi mesti menghantar laporan mesyuarat agung tahunan ke SKM pada atau akhir Disember setiap tahun.

Katanya mereka yang gagal berbuat demikian boleh diambil tindakan sama ada dikenakan denda di mahkamah atau dikompaun mengikut Seksyen 39 akta itu antara RM2,000 hingga RM5,000.

-- BERNAMA